This is a collaborative project with University of Portsmouth (PI), University of Nottingham (Co-PI), and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (sponsor).

Rivers are dynamic systems that change over time in response to environmental and water management factors. River channels respond to disturbances in a variety of ways such as changing channel size, slope along the flow path, and bed and bank materials. Forecasting these changes over many decades is challenging due to the variable nature of modeling input parameters (e.g., variable flow rates), uncertainty in computed sediment transport rates, and the complexity of how channels respond to having a surplus or deficit of sediment. The goal of this project is to develop a tool to forecast changes in river form and riverbed material using a hybrid modeling approach. Existing sediment transport models are deterministic and lack complex channel response. The modeling tool being developed for this project is uncertainty-bounded and flexible to explore a range of possible future scenarios. As a hybrid model, it incorporates traditional process-based hydraulic and sediment transport models with a set of rules for how the channel responds to imbalances in sediment transport rates. Finally, the tool will provide a variety of indicators for various channel conditions.